A 3000 gateway unit is able to turmoil ready

 A 3000 gateway unit can be ready turmoil?
This source is reported in the September 12 Certificate interview
GF Securities Development Research Center, General Manager Liu Jianzhou
Citigroup managing director and head of China research Xue Lan
State Securities chief economist at Golden Rock
Moderator: China Securities News, Wan Jing Gong Xiaolei
rebound can break the previous high?
Moderator: A turbulent stock market to resume its rally after, you think that A shares once again how much depth the possibility of adjustments? the fourth quarter of 3478 Shanghai Composite Index can break early August highs?
Golden Rock: Pre 3000 stock market crash is a stock index point ; Chonglang valuation of support. second half of the liquid will not be much less, stock index exceeded the previous high it is unlikely that, in the 2800-2900 point is acceptable.
stock index fell to 2700 points, I pointed out that 2700 corresponds to less than 2.7 times the book value and 21 times earnings, if taking into account the overall profitability of listed companies in 2010 increased 25%, A further decline in stock valuations to 16 times earnings and 2.4 times book value. suggest that investors enter the market in stock index 2700m2800 point range, in stock index point of the short-term trading opportunities for 2700-3300, but also long-term investment.
Liu Jianzhou: Recently re-Shenfutiaozheng unlikely. There are three main reasons, first, although the relevant authorities recently conducted a policy of fine-tuning, but overall a major macroeconomic policy during the year, the steering is not possible, liquidity will continue to maintain a sufficient level; followed by the micro-enterprise business Results are for the better, at a reasonable valuation levels, there is no overestimation; In addition, clear signs of global economic recovery, the external support of the broader market is not a good atmosphere there Shenfutiaozheng. Overall, the current the indicators is better than last year, and are in the right direction. So there is no reason to tape last year's Shenfudiaozheng, markets or technical adjustments to the emotional buying opportunity should be considered.
Xue Lan : short term, A shares again the depth of adjustments, such adjustments to the 2300-2400 point is unlikely, but it also weakened the power rose sharply, very difficult to break through early August highs. the future will be a more within a narrow range of shock, in a state of stalemate.
decision depends on several factors A-cap stocks, first to see 9 to 12 new loans will be no more than 7-8 months size has increased, The second is to see how the real estate market trends, need to focus on real estate sales of gold and silver October nine, and if the developer can take the initiative with the government to control prices, gold silver nine ten volume can be restored, then the future A shares will be more optimistic, otherwise need to be careful.
the size of credit will rebound?
Moderator: How do the size of credit in August, the fourth quarter, how will changes in market liquidity?
Xue Lan: recent global stock market are up , and A shares the main reason for adjustment is a reversal of domestic liquidity tendency is not so abundant a flow. the first half of the proliferation of domestic funds exceeded expectations, how to continue after flooding became a problem, there 7-8 months a new increase loans to fall. a quarter of lending a lot of notes, just 7-8 months due bills after entering the recovery of long-term loans mainly the formation of the liquidity crunch .8 scale loans and some institutions before the prediction is not so bad, four quarter the size of credit will not be bad, but not so abundant as in the first half.
King of rock: in the fourth quarter there will be significant improvement in economic fundamentals, funds will not significantly deteriorate .8 face a number of months short-term notes issued in February expire before the expected size of new credit billion in 4000-5000, it seems more accurate, in September is expected to be 6000-7000 billion. Also note 6,7 month greater new credit contrast, there is the problem with financial allocation, the amount of new loans in January 6,7 should be the mean value. is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter the size of credit will be due to the impact of the financial allocation, or will occur in December beating of the rise in the second half of the overall credit scale 3 trillion or more.
Liu Jianzhou: the mobility of the fourth quarter will not be as rapid as growth in the first half, but still remain high, liquidity remains adequate level. Even if the prospect of the situation next year, the credit will not be too tight because so much government investment projects, matching funds can not suddenly cut off, as long as there is no significant inflationary pressures, large-scale contraction of government is little possibility of monetary policy. The Government will tend to gradually shrink the way, do not take sudden tightening of the path.
Moderator: How would you listed the third and fourth quarter earnings? profit improvement will form a good support on the stock market?
Liu Jianzhou: From the data, the situation is gradually improving corporate earnings , third and fourth quarter, or year, whether the chain, the data will be more optimistic. because the real economy does improve the profitability of the business formation support. and the same period last year, an increase of more can be expected, because in 2008 the third and fourth quarter corporate earnings trough in the fourth quarter to improve corporate performance and even greater magnitude.
Xue Lan: improved profitability of listed companies is very positive, the market has been optimistic for next year have a full estimate of performance. A-share market trend is mainly affected by liquidity constraints, need to observe the fourth quarter of next year's policy change as well. But just released in August year on year decline in CPI and PPI narrow, ring up, the market began to worry about the end of inflation and deflation coming, worries how changes in monetary policy next year.
Golden Rock: We hundreds of samples in long-term tracking of dynamic data analysis company, based on the listed company established in 2009 (excluding ST companies) will achieve 17% earnings growth, the certainty of this prediction has been improved significantly. listed in 2010 the company's overall earnings growth of 25%. We believe that under the conditions of abundant liquidity, the stock market advances in 2010 is expected ROE in 2010 is expected to reach 14.5% when the stock market investors will accept 2.5-3 times the City net rate of 20-25 times earnings. corresponding stock index point is 2700-3300.
cyclical industry is still the subject?
Moderator: under market turmoil, the recent food and beverage, business, trade and other defense industry are active, you believe that the sustainability of this market transition style? the fourth quarter with the defense industry is a good investment opportunity?
Xue Lan: defensive adjustment plate when the market is relatively stable performance. flow recovery, significant impact on the cyclical industry, and defensive blocks are less affected. We are optimistic on the defensive sector, food, business, medicine and other industries more optimistic about the performance.
King of rock: the emotional effect of the first half of the stock market, property market effects of government consumption and government investment to create jobs, a rebound in consumption, particularly the rapid growth of high-end consumer. more optimistic about the future of our wine, food and beverage and retail sector.
Liu Jianzhou: pre-market adjustment is too large, resulting in haunt the market, there is no direction in the market when the defense industry tends to attract some funding. In this case, food, medical and other industries to determine the relative performance of better performance is also reasonable. but because the market value of these industries more generally small, can not accommodate large funds, for the sustainability of these industries are skeptical.
Moderator: How to Understand the fourth quarter of the real estate market? financial and real estate industry should be avoided or the active configuration? strong cyclical investment opportunities in the industry if there ?
Golden Rock: from loose monetary policy and rising stock market caused by government investment, and then transfer to the real estate to bring housing prices, will continue next year. We need to focus on house prices rose 3 to 6 months after the real estate pick-up investments, the investment recovery 3-6 months related industries led the recovery. But what is worrying is that government investment next year will be constrained funding sources, the threat of loose monetary policy, inflation will be constrained.
cyclical industry boom crash normal in the fourth quarter and even early next year need to seize the two major investment themes: first, the invisible loose monetary or real cause of inflation, can focus on raw materials, precious metals, financial and real estate strong cyclical industries. Second, the economic recovery themes, including the foam recovery and manufacturing recovery is still concerned about the cyclical sector.
Liu Jianzhou: Real estate transaction data is the recent decline,UGG boots cheap, but the developer to buy land situation, their relatively high investment enthusiasm that the market is quite active. turnover shrinking the gap between supply and demand may cause the outbreak of early demand, real estate supply, structural imbalance, leading buyers wait and see. to be increased housing supply, turnover is expected to re-active. We are not pessimistic for real estate But we must guard against excessive price increases could lead to policy control.
prospects for the financial sector continue to be optimistic. financial stocks adjust fully present, there are valuation advantage. substantial growth in bank lending spreads have reached the bottom of the second quarter, if in future the currency policy tightening, interest rate differential is expected to expand, banks are favorable conditions for profitable growth. At present China's insurance industry is still in its early stages,bailey UGG boots, there is great room for development. broker to broker business in general as the main source of income, with the size of the non-lifting of the ban, the market The trend towards growing volume of transactions, brokerage stocks also should be optimistic about the prospects.
three quarters of key macroeconomic data comparison, if the data better than expected, uncertain prospects for recovery and further, the market will be further improved, in which case the stock is still strong cycle have the opportunity.
Xue Lan: We are in the fourth quarter real estate market is cautious, before the large price increase, inhibit the ability of consumers to purchase gold and silver October September we can appear more cautious. But the financial sector continue to be optimistic in the short term is relatively clear visibility of bank performance, profitability is guaranteed, the valuation is relatively low. coal, nonferrous metals and other strong cyclical industry, we also caution that as with the real estate industry, and credit policy, monetary policy is close tight and closely related to the process of economic recovery, the industry outlook is not yet clear.
depth of experience of more than 20% after adjustment for stock index this week, continued to rebound. with macro data have been released in August, hovering in the 3,UGG bailey button,000 point mark in the A-share market to No Buzz surf market? investors still optimistic that becomes highly forward? strong cyclical sector of the avoidance or active configuration? current round table invited Beijing Development Research Center of GF Securities general manager Liu Jianzhou, Citigroup Managing Director of China Studies Lan Xue,UGG boots clearance, head of the State Securities chief economist of gold rock gold.